- Double metaphor for an event that is relative to others from the same system both:
- extremely large in size or effect (a “king”) and
- born of unique origins (a “dragon”).
- Dragon kings are generated by mechanisms, which amplify them to extreme levels:
- positive feedback,
- tipping points,
- bifurcations, and
- Such events tend to occur in nonlinear and complex systems.
- Understanding and monitoring these dynamics, allows some predictability of such events.
- They differ from black swan events in terms of predictability, as black swan events are inherently unpredictable, whereas dragon kings, while still exhibiting some unpredictability, can be anticipated to some degree.
- Dragon king theory urges that special attention be given to the study and monitoring of extremes, because they may reveal underlying hidden organising principles.
- One should also not forget that significant uncertainty will almost always be present, and should be rigorously considered in decisions regarding risk management and design.
Source:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_king_theory